EUR/USD monthly: rising channel broken, Fibonacci targets 1.0905 and 1.0735
FXFibo editorial · · 1 min readAfter failing to clear the 1.1908 high, EUR/USD has broken below its 2025 rising channel and lost the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement (1.1354). Price is now testing the 0.5 retracement (1.1130), and the main scenario is a deeper correction towards 1.0905 and 1.0735.
Main scenario
While price stays below 1.1354, any rebound into 1.1130–1.1354 is a selling opportunity. Target 1 is the 0.618 retracement at 1.0905 and target 2 the 0.707 retracement at 1.0735, with 1.0585 (0.786) further out.
Alternative scenario
A recovery and hold above 1.1500 would mean the channel break was false, opening the way back to 1.1908.
Key levels
Resistance: 1.1354 (0.382) — 1.1500 — 1.1908 — 1.2254 Support: 1.1130 (0.5) — 1.0905 (0.618) — 1.0735 (0.707) — 1.0585 (0.786)
Market-moving events
Fed and ECB December rate decisions, US and eurozone inflation
On the monthly chart, EUR/USD moved inside a rising channel through 2025 and 2026 but failed to break the key 1.1908 high (July 2021). Recent bearish candles have broken the channel floor, and price has lost the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the rally. This structure usually leads to a deeper correction towards the 0.618 and 0.707 retracements.