US October CPI comes in hot: headline +0.4% m/m, core +0.3%
US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October and core CPI 0.3%, both a tenth above forecasts. Markets still fully price a Fed rate hike in December.
Contents
US consumer inflation for October came in hotter than markets expected. Both headline and core CPI beat forecasts by a tenth of a percentage point, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to keep tightening.
October CPI at a glance
| Indicator | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI m/m (headline) | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Core CPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Supercore (services ex-housing) | 0.4% | — | 0.42% |
Headline inflation slowed from September's 0.6% but still ran ahead of consensus. Core CPI strips out volatile food and energy, and it held at 0.3%. For the Fed, that means underlying price pressure has not cooled yet.
Supercore inflation measures services excluding housing, and the Fed watches it closely. It rose 0.4%, almost unchanged from the prior month. This part of the basket is driven largely by wages, so its stickiness suggests services inflation will not fade easily.
Why there is no annual figure
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not publish a year-over-year inflation rate this time. During the October 2025 federal government shutdown, full price data was not collected, so there is no October base to compare against. Markets are therefore focused entirely on the monthly readings.
Market reaction and rate expectations
- Federal Reserve: After the release, traders still price a 100% probability of a rate hike at the December meeting.
- 50 bp scenario: CME FedWatch puts the odds of a half-point hike at around 10%, and the probability is rising.
- Gold and Treasuries: Gold and the US 10-year Treasury yield reacted immediately to the print. A hotter-than-expected CPI typically lifts yields and the dollar and weighs on gold.
Takeaway for traders
October's data confirms the "sticky inflation" narrative. Between now and December, any further strong releases such as payrolls or retail sales could push the odds of a 50 bp move higher. That would mean bigger swings in the dollar, gold and US indices, so risk management and disciplined stop-losses matter more than ever.
See our daily gold and dollar setups in the analysis section. Questions? Telegram support @fibonacci_chart
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — October CPI report; CME FedWatch Tool
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