Market sees 80–85% odds of Jensen Huang leaving Nvidia: would ousting him be a costly mistake?

The market is no longer just reacting to Nvidia headlines; it has effectively priced in Jensen Huang's departure. The key question now: if the board removes him, is that good or bad for shareholders?

Key numbers

Metric	Value
Market-implied odds of Huang being ousted or resigning	80–85% (record)
Market value lost after both relationships came to light	about $700 billion
Market value lost since Oct 26	$2.1 trillion in 26 trading days
Average daily loss in value	about $81 billion
NVDA decline over the same period	about 35%

Roughly half of the stock's 35% drop over those 26 days is attributed to the recent scandal.

The case against ousting him

Some market analysts argue that removing Huang could prove a costly mistake. Their reasoning:

• History: A study of 187 forced CEO departures at S&P 1500 companies found that ousting CEOs who had outperformed their peers led to negative long-term stock returns.
• Risk already priced in: With the market pricing an 80% chance of his exit, the downside of keeping Huang may be limited while the upside could be significant.
• The Amazon precedent: In 2019, Amazon kept Jeff Bezos as CEO after his extramarital affair became public, and the stock rose about 108% through 2021.
• Huang's role: In this view, Huang is an inseparable part of Nvidia and of the AI revolution more broadly.

The other side

It is worth noting that Huang's case is not only about personal conduct. Reports of a relationship with a direct report and the national-security angle (chip exports to China and senators' requests to preserve documents) raise more serious corporate-governance and legal risks, an important difference from the Amazon example.

Takeaway for traders

This is a major shift in the situation of the most important player in the AI revolution. Today's board decision, whether to remove or keep Huang, could trigger sharp moves in NVDA, the Nasdaq 100 and chip stocks. Because much of the exit scenario is already priced in, news that he stays could spark a rebound, while news of his removal may have a smaller impact than expected. In conditions like these, position sizing and stop-losses matter more than calling the direction.

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Sources: Market data and prediction-market expectations; research on CEO dismissals at S&P 1500 companies; reporting by The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal