Eurozone Q3 GDP grows 0.4% in second estimate; trade deficit wider than expected
The second estimate of eurozone growth in the third quarter showed 0.4% q/q and 1.3% y/y, in line with forecasts. Employment growth was slightly weaker than expected and the September trade balance came in at a €10.3 billion deficit, worse than forecast.
Contents
Today's Eurostat data paint a picture of moderate growth in the eurozone: GDP matched expectations, job growth was a little softer and the trade deficit was bigger than forecast.
GDP (second estimate, Q3)
| Indicator | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| q/q | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| y/y | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
Quarterly growth slowed from the previous quarter, but the annual rate edged up; both figures matched forecasts.
Employment change (Q3)
| Indicator | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| q/q | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| y/y | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
Quarterly job growth was slightly below expectations, while the annual rate beat forecasts.
Trade balance (September)
| Indicator | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade balance | -€10.3bn | -€4.5bn | -€16.1bn |
The deficit narrowed from the previous month but was larger than the market expected.
Why it matters for markets
There were no big surprises, so this data alone is unlikely to move the euro sharply. Moderate growth combined with high inflation (Spain at 4.9% and France at 3.4%, both released today) leaves the ECB in a tough spot: the economy is not weak enough to justify rate cuts. The wider-than-expected trade deficit is mildly negative for the euro.
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Source: Eurostat
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