China October trade data: $32.7 billion surplus with the US and a jump in oil imports

Chinese customs data for October show the trade surplus with the United States reached $32.71 billion. More interesting than the headline, though, is the picture of raw-material imports, which carries signals for oil, copper and commodity currencies.

Energy: monthly jump, yearly decline

Commodity	October	September	Jan–Oct 2026	Jan–Oct 2025
Crude oil (million t)	41.94	37.10	399.90	470.94
Refined products (million t)	3.15	1.85	27.15	34.19
Natural gas (million t)	10.01	10.86	99.22	102.09

Crude imports rose about 13% from September, but year-to-date they are roughly 15% below last year, so energy demand from the world's largest oil importer has not returned to previous levels.

Metals and rare earths

• Copper: October imports of 453,000 t (September: 461,000 t); 4.21 million t year-to-date versus 4.46 million t last year.
• Aluminium: 10-month exports reached 5.91 million t, up from 5.02 million t.
• Rare earths: October exports of 4,386 t (September: 4,270 t), but 48,097 t year-to-date, below 52,699 t a year earlier.

Possible market impact

• Oil: the monthly rebound in Chinese imports supports prices, but the yearly weakness shows demand is still fragile.
• Australian and New Zealand dollars: both are sensitive to Chinese raw-material demand; softer copper and commodity imports could weigh mildly.
• Trade relations: a large surplus with the US could revive the tariff debate.

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Source: General Administration of Customs of China